By Colton Hillman
Wake up, Republicans. You have a Conor Lamb problem. The newly elected representative from Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District is a living embodiment of the Democrat’s best chance to win back the House in November and pick up seats around the country in various state and local races. Lamb, who ran in a district that President Trump won by nearly 20 points, was an ideal candidate for South Western Pennsylvania. He ran as a pro-fracking, socially moderate, anti-Pelosi, pro-second amendment marine who was able to tap into the #Resistance and the large pool of Trump Republicans who have either voted for Democrats in the past or who vote for Democrats at the local and state level.
If Lamb can be replicated in Trump districts in rural areas like upstate New York, Ohio and Michigan or in suburban battlegrounds like Georgia and Texas, Republicans could be faced with the ominous “Blue Wave.”
Recent special election wins for Democrats have been described as a strong gauge on the #Resistance’s ability to go to the polls and produce actual, winnable candidates. But in many ways, they could fall very short in November. For one, the Senate is essentially out of play entirely for Democrats. They immediately risk losing potentially 3-10 seats in states that the President won by huge margins like North Dakota, Montana, Missouri and West Virginia. Democrats will pour a great deal of resources into playing defense in these states, along with throwing money at long shot senate candidates like Beto O’Rourke in Texas or former governor Phil Bredesen in Tennessee. As resources are stretched further, it will be difficult to again burn through tens of millions of dollars like we saw in Lamb’s race and in last summer’s special election for Georgia’s 6th Congressional District’s special election, which Jon Ossoff subsequently lost anyways. With the nation’s eyes on hundreds of races rather than one or two, the regular universal rules of politics begin to set in as races are no longer being played out in a vacuum. Further, on election day come November, Republicans turnout will most definitely improve from their current levels seen in recent special elections.
Even with millions of dollars to spend and donations pouring into races from nearly every corner of the nation, how many Lambs currently exist in the Democratic Party? Look to the Democratic primary election in Illinois’s 3rd Congressional District where the incumbent pro-life Congressman, Dan Lipinski is poised to lose to a pro-choice, much more progressive candidate. This district, however, is safely Democratic, so it has no real impact on control within the House. But, imagine this scenario in a battleground or leaning Republican district where either an incumbent Republican is running or a conservative Democrat holds the seat – in a district just like Pennsylvania 18. Elizabeth Warren or Chris Murphy would not have won Lamb’s race and with the growing leftward swing of the Democratic Party, much like the one seen in the Tea Party movement of 2010, progressives are becoming the candidates of choice among Democratic voters. Look to New York State where actress Cynthia Nixon is now challenging Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for governor. Cuomo, seen by many as a pragmatic liberal leader, could be heavily damaged by a competitive primary election or, in a worst case scenario, lose votes in a general election if Nixon stays on the ballot as a third party challenger. This could most definitely open the door to a moderate Republican challenger like Dutchess County Executive Marc Molinaro to potentially pull off a major upset in blue New York.
Excitement and energy matters, but turnout matters even more, and while Democrats are certainly making heavy gains in many areas, it may be an uphill battle in trying to create a blue tsunami. In the Texas primaries a number of weeks ago, Republicans still won the turnout battle by a half-million votes while the Democrat candidates for statewide office failed to clinch decisive victories over their lesser known competitors.
In November, Republicans can expect better turnout as their traditional base heads to the polls to show their support for the tax bill and conservative accomplishments on a range of issues since they gained complete power in 2016. If Republicans completely quit attempting to pass constructive legislation between now and November, as some reports suggest, they severely risk turning off an already lukewarm base and could lose any amount of enthusiasm that Republican voters currently have.
If House races in states like Montana, Utah and Kansas last year proved anything, it’s that strong and winnable Democratic candidates can come very close to winning traditionally strong Republican seats. Democrats are poised to come close in November. But close doesn’t count in politics.
Colton Hillman, GSB ’19 is a finance major from Elmira, NY
