By JOHN BONNAZO

COPY EDITOR

Steven Spielberg is an unlucky man at the Oscars.

This blockbuster filmmaker has won two Best Director trophies, for Schindler’s List and Saving Private Ryan, but only one film, Schindler’s, took home Best Picture gold (Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love). This year is another year of mixed blessings for Spielberg – he is the frontrunner for Best Director for Lincoln, but Argo is favored for Best Picture despite no Best Director nomination. After this year, Spielberg could have the dubious distinction of three Best Director trophies but only one Best Picture win. That disconnect provides one of this year’s twists in a category that has skewed many different ways since the Oscars began.

This year’s group of nominated directors is more eclectic than most. Predicted nominees Spielberg, Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) made the list, but so did two surprise nominees, indie directors Michael Haneke (Amour) and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild). Even stranger than the people who got on were the people left off: A-list filmmakers like Tom Hooper, Quentin Tarantino and Kathryn Bigelow. The most talked-about snub was that of Ben Affleck, the director of Argo (although he could still win a Best Picture trophy as the film’s producer).

Many reasons for Affleck’s omission were tossed around. Some thought problems with the Academy’s new electronic voting system were to blame. Others thought that some Academy members made more esoteric choices, thinking their peers would vote for Affleck and cancel other choices out; this obviously did not happen. From a historical perspective, some thought that the Academy had tired of awarding actors-turned-directors (such as Mel Gibson for Braveheart).  Whatever the reasons, Oscar history has shown that Affleck does not have to worry that much: Best Picture and Best Director split more than the Academy would like to admit.

Though it is rare for a film to win Best Picture without a Best Director nomination, exceptions have occurred. The most recent was at the 1989 Academy Awards, when Oliver Stone won Best Director for Born on the Fourth of July, but Driving Miss Daisy, whose director, Bruce Beresford, was snubbed, won the big prize. Given the gap of over 20 years, popular belief is that it is time for another exception to the rule.

Nabbing Best Picture without a nod for the director may be rare, but a more frequent phenomenon that could also be repeated this year is when Best Picture and Best Director go to two different films. This has happened 18 times in the Academy’s 84-year history. Most recently, Ang Lee won Best Director for Brokeback Mountain at the 2005 Oscars, but Crash, whose director, Paul Haggis, was nominated but did not win, brought home Best Picture. For a classic example, flash back to 1972: The Godfather won Best Picture, but Bob Fosse took Best Director for Cabaret (Francis Ford Coppola would finally get the Best Director prize for The Godfather Part II).

The films that have won both Best Picture and Best Director vary widely in size and scope. Over the last 20 years, directors like Anthony Minghella and Peter Jackson have received the award for sweeping dramas like The English Patient and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. However, especially in the last few years, the Academy has skewed toward smaller films. Look at the past two winners: Tom Hooper for the royal drama The King’s Speech and Michel Hazanavicius for the black-and-white The Artist.

Affleck’s underdog status has helped him.  According to awards tracking site Gold Derby, Affleck’s base has rallied behind him in his time of need.  Since the Oscar nominations, he has won Best Director at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Directors Guild Awards. The film has taken the top prize at these awards, as well as from the Producers and Screen Actors Guilds. People are rooting for his smaller movie to triumph over the mighty Lincoln.  This mirrors other unassuming films that started slow and ended up winning the gold over blockbusters. Human dramas like Million Dollar Baby and Slumdog Millionaire (and their respective directors, Clint Eastwood and Danny Boyle) won over extravaganzas like The Aviator and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button that had less popular appeal. History could very well repeat itself this year, even without individual commendation for Affleck.

Being the legend that he is, though, Spielberg still has some support. At the Directors Guild Awards, as each of the nominees was recognized individually for their work before the winner was announced, “Mr. Spielberg received a standing ovation,” according to the New York Times, but Affleck did not. This further snub, though small, suggests that even though the award was given to the younger director, everyone in the room appreciates Spielberg’s senior status. This respect could help Lincoln snatch the big prize.

Argo’s surge has helped its chances, but the Oscars have taught us that anything is possible. Nobody will know for sure how many trophies Spielberg and Affleck will each bring home until the envelopes are opened on Feb. 24.