By Joe Moresky

The archetype of the political outsider has always held considerable allure in the eyes of the American public. This is how Donald Trump aims to define himself: a successful businessman who puts a stop to the buck, gets concrete results and does not get mired in the niceties of the status quo. It is a compelling case coming from someone who has had tangible successes in the past.

But I would not let the glitter of his gilded surname cover up the fact that Trump is the furthest thing from a political panacea this election cycle. Not only is Trump’s present frontrunner status not an indication of future victory, the assumption that he alone could accomplish substantial change if elected is totally wrong.

According to Real Clear Politics, Trump currently leads the rest of the GOP’s primary field in national polls by an average of 14.5 percentage points over his closest competition. Although it is a commanding lead by any standard, I would take those numbers with a grain of salt. Polls this far out from Election Day have historically been insignificant (at this stage in past contests, Rudy Giuliani, Howard Dean, Ross Perot and Hilary Clinton all had the Presidency locked up). The real impact the real-estate mogul is having on the race is depriving one of the strongest Republican fields since the 1980s of any sustainable oxygen. The news cycle is consistently dominated by his antics, gaffes and shock statements rather than any discussion of actual policy proposals.

Rather than being able to explore the policies behind Ohio’s currently robust economy or discuss America’s role abroad in an increasingly volatile world, voters are force-fed The Trump Show, complete with swipes at the honor of Vietnam war veterans and not-so-subtle personal attacks on reporters for asking justified questions.

In time, the field will winnow down as candidacies unable to thrive die out (I am still not sure why Jim Gilmore or George Pataki even bothered to declare) and support will consolidate around the four or five actual contenders for the nomination. With enough air to go around, Trump’s vague attempts at policy, willingness to dodge questions and inability to demonstrate a temperament suitable to the presidency will relegate him to the annals of political history as a quaint curiosity.

If, by some miracle, he does manage to get to the general election, I am confident one of two things will occur. The first, and most likely outcome, of a Trump led ticket would be an electoral defeat for the Republican Party on par with Barry Goldwater’s decisive loss in 1964. Already left out in the wilderness for eight years during the Obama Administration, the GOP will have to endure at least four more years of “soul searching.”

The conservative base will have had their turn at the helm, only to dramatically sink the ship. Burned from the hardline candidacy of The Donald, the Party’s moderate wing will regain control, beginning the journey to restore the party of Lincoln back to viability.

The second outcome is that Trump wins a term behind the Resolute Desk and fails to meet expectations. The constitutional constraints placed upon the office will prevent Trump from making any drastic (and detrimental) changes to the nation with a wave of his pen.

Additionally, Trump would have to deal with Congress to enact any substantial reform. For example, his ridiculous approach to immigration may as well be dead on arrival as every Democratic representative and senator, combined with any Republicans that might have any reason at all to be pro-immigration (or an ounce of political savvy), would vote against the measure. Recalcitrant legislative environments cannot be shouted away. Deft steering through the stubborn landscape requires knowledge of the unorthodox procedural methods used in contemporary politics to advance bills, of which Trump has none, is needed to have any hope of progress.

Americans have already seen the disappointment of celebrity leadership before at the state level. Jesse Ventura, former professional wrestler and the 38th Governor of Minnesota served only one term. His tenure initially progressed with tax reform but was soon bogged down with Ventura’s off-color comments and the alienation of the state legislature after a proposal to turn it into a unicameral body. Arnold Schwarzenegger, action-movie star and the 38th Governor of California, could point to a few concrete accomplishments like the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006. However, troubles with the state legislature resulted in a tenure that fell short of expectations set on the campaign trail.

Time and time again, the promises of success made on the campaign trail by political outsiders has fallen short of fruition. Instead, another truth about political progress has been reinforced: it takes someone with the gritty knowledge of legislative procedures, the executive ability to carry out an agenda and the persuasiveness to drum up support in order to make it happen.

In other words, a politician.

Joe Moresky, FCRH ’17, is a political science major from East Meadow, New York.