Rangers, Rays, Indians, Yankees, Orioles, Royals: six teams, separated by 3.5 games, all desperately fighting for their playoff lives. Every game is life or death. In just two weeks, four of these teams will be sitting on the proverbial couch, viewers of October baseball instead of participants. Such is life in the cruel, unforgiving and relentless American League Wild Card Race.
When the second wild card was instituted last year, there were two opposing mindsets among baseball fans. Those who supported it claimed that it would add extra drama to September baseball, since more teams would view themselves as still alive in their respective playoff races. Others, however, pointed out that the idea of a second wild card is not without its faults. A team with a mediocre record could theoretically be the second wild card team, thus cheapening the effort of the first wild card team who won more games to get essentially the same playoff spot. It is tough to make a concrete judgment on the second wild card, since either viewpoint could be right on a year-by-year basis depending on how the standings play out. This year, however, the second wild card has undoubtedly created an exhilarating race to the finish line.
Out of the six teams fighting for a playoff position, the Indians have the best chance to qualify for October baseball. Even though Texas and Tampa Bay both have superior records (as of this Sunday morning), Cleveland has the easiest remaining schedule, playing Houston, Chicago and Minnesota to round out the season. The Indians are arguably the only team vying for a wild card spot that is not struggling at the moment, having won nine of their last thirteen games. Cleveland is my pick to secure the first wild card spot.
The two teams that seem to have the worst chance to advance to October are Kansas City and Baltimore. Both have identical records of 78-70, 3.5 games out of a playoff spot. While this is certainly not an impossible deficit to overcome, they have to hope that the four teams in front of them lose, which is tough to rely on. Furthermore, both teams have very tough remaining schedules. The Royals have to play Cleveland and Texas, two teams desperately fighting alongside Tampa Bay for a final playoff spot. They also have a West Coast trip, which are always tough to win (yes, even in Seattle). Baltimore’s schedule is even tougher than this: its entire remaining schedule is against teams from the AL East, including six games against the Red Sox and four against the Rays. The odds are certainly not in their favor.
That leaves three remaining teams for the last wild card spot: Tampa Bay, Texas and New York. Out of these three teams, the Yankees have the easiest schedule, with series against three bottom feeders: Toronto, San Francisco and Houston. Their only other series is at home against the Rays, which will play a huge role in determining the final wild card team. However, the Yankees are also three games behind both the Rangers and the Rays, giving those two teams a distinct advantage.
Both the Rangers and the Rays currently lead the race with identical records of 81-66. However, both are also in the midst of complete free falls. Just a few weeks ago, they seemed like locks to land a playoff spot, but now there is a distinct possibility that one of them will fall short of the promised land. If I had to pick one team to join Cleveland in the playoffs, it would grudgingly be Tampa Bay. They seem to have righted the ship a little, having won three games in a row. They also have series against Texas and New York left, so they have firm control of their own fate. However, as we have seen time and time again, anything can happen when teams are fighting for the playoffs.
Six teams. Two spots. Two weeks. It should be fun.
