With just three weeks left of the regular season, the MLB playoff picture is becoming clearer after each day.
In the American League, the New York Yankees have a wavering lead in the East, while the Cleveland Guardians lead the Central and the Houston Astros top the West. The closest teams to the third wildcard spot are the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, who are currently three and a half games out. While the Baltimore Orioles have all but secured the first wildcard spot as they fight closely with the Yankees for the East division title, the stability of the Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins rosters will likely cement them with the other two spots in the playoffs.
In the National League, the Philadelphia Phillies lead the East, the Milwaukee Brewers lead the Central and the Los Angeles Dodgers lead the West. While these three teams all have a hefty lead in their respective divisions, the NL wildcard race is much closer. The San Diego Padres currently hold a two-game lead for the first wildcard spot, the Arizona Diamondbacks sit in the second spot one game ahead, and the New York Mets have recently surged to tie the Atlanta Braves for the third spot. In the next few weeks, the battle in the National League will be a close one.
The 2024 season has brought a number of strong contenders to the World Series, with the Major League-best 86-57 Dodgers at the forefront. With Japanese ace pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto nearing his return, L.A. has all the tools to achieve their first World Series win since the shortened 2020 COVID-19 season. The acquisition of superstar Juan Soto has reconstructed the 82-61 Yankees, and they seem like they’ll be serious competitors this October. However, the 2023 playoff picture showed that unlikely teams can heat up as the weather gets cooler. Two wildcard teams that have the power to prevail in the playoffs are the Royals and the Padres.
Award Predictions
Most Valuable Player
AL: Aaron Judge, Yankees
There’s no debating this one. 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most notable seasons in baseball history for the 32-year-old Yankee, as he leads the MLB in WAR (9.5), home runs (51), RBI (125), OBP (.454), SLG (.697), OPS (1.152) and total bases (348). While Judge will clearly be taking home the award, breakout seasons by young stars Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals) and Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox) should receive second and third-place votes, respectively.
NL: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
2024 has been another magical season for the unicorn. Ohtani is no stranger to making history, but what makes the 30-year-old’s 2024 so noteworthy is that he would be the first DH to ever achieve MVP status. Ohtani received the MVP award twice (2021, 2023) before an injury prevented him from pitching this season. He is easily on pace to become the first Major League player to achieve 50 home runs and 50 stolen bases, which has throttled him to be the likely winner. Francisco Lindor (Mets) and Marcell Ozuna (Braves) will likely follow Ohtani in voting.
Cy Young
AL: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
Many thought he would be dealt to a stronger contender at the trade deadline, but Skubal has played the largest role in the Tigers’ effort as Detroit rises in the wildcard race. At 27, Skubal has put together an exceptional season and is on pace to win the pitching Triple Crown in the AL; he currently leads the league in wins (16), ERA (2.53), and strikeouts (208). With an ERA 0.52 runs lower than any other qualified AL pitcher, Skubal seems to have already crossed the finish line in this race.
NL: Chris Sale, Braves
In what seems to be a long time coming for the eight-time All-Star, Sale will likely receive his first Cy Young award this season. After an injury-riddled seven-year tenure with Boston, the 35-year-old has proven himself in 2024 as one of the best pitchers in baseball. Like Skubal, Sale also has the chance to win the pitching Triple Crown, as he leads the NL in ERA (2.46) and wins (16) and is one strikeout ahead of the Padres Dylan Cease (206) for first in that category.
Rookie of the Year
AL: Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox
The rookie of the year races in both the AL and NL have been far closer than the others. While the odds seem to be in Oriole Colton Cowser’s favor, the 25-year-old Abreu has outmatched Cowser in WAR (2.8), batting average (.264), OBP (.330), SLG (.487), OPS (.814) and OPS+ (123). On top of an above-average season at the plate, Abreu is shaping up to be a Gold Glove-caliber outfielder. Right field is an especially difficult position at Fenway Park, where Abreu has played exceptionally well. Although Cowser leads Abreu in home runs, hits, plate appearances and RBI, broader statistics indicate Abreu to be the best overall rookie in the American League.
NL: Jackson Merrill, Padres
By the All-Star break, it would be hard to convince any baseball fan that anyone other than Paul Skenes would take Rookie of the Year honors; Skenes had just become the fifth rookie of all time to start the All-Star game. However, the 21-year-old Merrill has launched a red-hot Padres team to first in the wildcard race. Merrill is now batting .289 with 22 home runs and 82 RBI, along with a 3.5 WAR in a season more than worthy of the honors.