By PATRICK MULLEN

STAFF WRITER

The 85^th Academy Awards may be the tightest, most unpredictable yet. The Best Picture race in particular has no frontrunner unlike most previous years. While there have been surprises before, one is usually able to narrow it down to two or three films that are certain to win the Oscar. This year that does not prove to be the case, as most of the nine films nominated have strong cases.

To begin with the films that have little to no chance, one must look at the films that have not also been nominated for Best Director. These awards do not always go together, but it is reasonable to assume a film not nominated in this category will not be voted the best of the nine films. Therefore, the strong audience praise for Les Miserables must be ignored, and we must also discount Quentin Tarantino’s spaghetti western Django Unchained. The final two films not to be nominated for Best Director are two puzzling ones, considering before the nominations were announced, I thought these to be two of the three frontrunners. Despite unanimous critical praise for Ben Affleck’s historical CIA thriller, Argo did not earn its director an Oscar nomination. I was even more shocked, however, by Kathryn Bigelow going without a nomination for her CIA thriller Zero Dark Thirty. Just a few weeks ago, I thought this film would win Best Picture, but now I must reconsider. With how good these films are, it is not fair to say they have no chance at winning, but it would be something that has only happened twice since the early 1930s.

That leaves only five films with a “legitimate” chance. Of these, I have only seen two, but I will do my best to mimic what is going on in voters’ minds. Life of Pi is a film that I really did not expect to be one of the nine films nominated, but I will admit it makes a great deal of sense. Despite being thought of as a good movie since its debut at the New York Film Festival, it did not carry a great deal of Oscar buzz until very recently. This late-season momentum is what brought The Artist a number of Oscars, as it likely would have gone completely forgotten had it not been for the buzz. However, The Artist clearly emerged as last year’s best film, while Life of Pi’s momentum just seemed to sneak it into the race. It would be foolish to say this film does not have a chance, however.

Amour may be the hardest film to read in this list of nominations. Recent voter trends may indicate some favor with this French film, considering three of the last four Best Picture winners were foreign. However, all of them were done in the English language and two of them were British films. No foreign language film has ever won this award. However, one can say no foreign language film has ever had the chance Amour does. Indeed the last foreign language film to be nominated for Best Picture, Letters from Iwo Jima, was clearly second-best behind The Departed. I have little doubt, considering the amount of awards this has been nominated for, that Amour is the best of these nine films, but I fear for a film like this, it is an honor just to be nominated.

Beasts of the Southern Wild is a film that I think has the least chance of the five come February 24. While it has been well received, it has not been a film that has critics raving, which I think is necessary for a small, independent film like this. In addition, it was made by a first-time filmmaker with plenty of actors who had never before appeared in a film. It is truly amazing that the film turned out the way it did with all that considered, but being surprisingly good and winning this award  are two different things.

Silver Linings Playbook is a comedy that has it all: it’s funny, witty, insightful on relationships and has great performances and great characters. Is it Oscar material, however? It has received eight nominations, including the “big 5” categories of Picture, Director, Actor, Actress and Adapted Screenplay. Still, the biggest hurdle it faces is the fact that it is a comedy, and comedies do not typically win this award. Lost in Translation, Sideways and Midnight in Paris all received similar acclaim and awards consideration, but none of them won the biggest award of them all.

Lastly, there’s Lincoln, a film that seemed to have Oscar buzz from the moment the Steven Spielberg-Daniel Day-Lewis collaboration was announced. The film is witty, gripping and seems to be the type of movie that the Academy dies for. However, Spielberg’s direction has been criticized by some as being uncreative and rather theatrical. Is this what will keep Lincoln from winning Best Picture? Probably not,but I think it may open the door for someone like Amour’s Michael Haneke to win Best Director.

It is certain to be a tough race to call. However, if I had to narrow it down to three films it would be Lincoln, Amour and Life of Pi. Nevertheless, the Academy is always good for a surprise or two; perhaps this year’s surprise will come with the Academy’s biggest honor.