It seemed the New York Rangers’ hot start to the season was frozen in Minnesota at the beginning of November. Without Adam Fox, Igor Shesterkin and Filip Chytil, a 3-0 lead coming off a six-game win seemed almost guaranteed to turn into a seven-game win streak.
Suddenly, though, the Wild put up four straight points to take the lead, and won the game in a shootout. Fans wondered if the Rangers could survive without their three injured players. To make matters worse, against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Nov. 12, Ryan Lindgren left the game hurt due to a dirty play. They have had three straight wins since their loss against the Wild, but witnessing them completely blow that game and then be 11 seconds away from losing to Columbus begs the question, is the early season hype for real this season?
The past two seasons have both been up-and-down seasons. The Rangers have had stretches that made them seem invincible, and others that made fans feel they would be fighting for a playoff spot. Last season, they had losing streaks of three or more on four separate occasions, and winning streaks of three or more on six separate occasions, with two of those occasions being seven-game winning streaks. Therefore, while the Rangers’ 15-3-1 start sits them atop the Metropolitan Division, it would not be surprising to see them fall back down the ladder, especially with Fox and Chytil out for a while. That pattern would be familiar to the Blueshirt faithful.
This pattern is not limited to the regular season. In the 2022 playoffs, the Rangers came back from down 3-1 to the Pittsburgh Penguins, beat the Carolina Hurricanes in seven games and were up 2-0 in the series on the defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning before dropping four straight. In the 2023 playoffs, the Rangers blew a 2-0 series lead to the New Jersey Devils in the first round. Rangers fans have learned not to get their hopes too high, as it seems that every time things start to look up, they are always too good to be true.
It is still very early in this season, but it is worth comparing this season to the last to see if the high hopes for the Rangers are legitimate this time around, or if this is just a story we’ve seen before.
Let’s start with the good: Chris Kreider. He’s got a 25.5% shooting percentage compared to the league average of 10.3%. He currently leads the team with 13 goals. If he maintains his current rate and plays all 82 games, he would have 59 goals for the season. Left wings Artemi Panarin and Alexis Lafrenière have both improved offensively, with Panarin logging 29 points so far and Laffy logging 12 on a 20% shooting percentage.
The Rangers are also boasting less goals allowed per game and slightly better shooting, save and penalty kill percentages than they have in both of the past two seasons. However, where they really stand out is their efficiency on the power play. Their 30% power play percentage is significantly higher than it was the last two seasons, and almost 10% higher than the current league average of 20.32%.
Unfortunately for the Rangers, that is where the good news ends. In addition to the four injuries they suffered, Kaapo Kakko and Mika Zibanejad have been extremely disappointing thus far. Kakko, a former second overall pick, has yet to hit a breakthrough in his career so far. Last year, Kakko had a 14.4 shooting percentage with 40 points, 27 blocks and 26 hits. This year, he has regressed, carrying a 8.7 shooting percentage with three points, six blocks and three hits in 19 out of 82 games.
Zibanejad’s poor performance so far, with him being a bigger star, has been more noticeable for the Rangers. Last year, he was second on the team in points scored with 91, only one behind Artemi Panarin. This year, through 19 games, he has only 14 points, less than half of that of Panarin. On top of that, Zibanejad has a 7.7 shooting percentage. Yikes. Not a good look for the team’s leading goal-scorer last year. His 39 goals and 71 hits from last season dwarfs the four goals and six hits he has right now.
Another area where the team has lacked is their shooting rate. They just flat out don’t shoot enough. The Rangers have been known to be picky with their shot selection, but the numbers show that it’s reaching an all-time high this season. Last year, they shot 31.5 shots per game and 2582 over the course of the season, 20 above the league average. This year, they are shooting 29.5 shots per game with 561 over 19 games, 21 below the league average.
The Rangers, having been so effective on the power play, can retain their shot selection methods during that part of games. But otherwise, they’re going to need to shoot more, because a higher shooting percentage is not going to make up for taking so many less shots.
To have a shot at the Stanley Cup, the Rangers are going to need a few things. Firstly, they need to stay healthy. Next, they need players to step up. Zibanejad needs to be the star we remember from last year, and both Lafrenière and Kakko have work to do as number one and two picks, respectively.
Lafrenière has not been bad this season, but the Rangers need more from him. After scoring seven points in four games earlier this month, Lafrenière has registered just one point in his last five. Defensively, he only has two blocks and seven hits this season so far, whereas last season he finished with 28 blocks and 141 hits.
Overall, it’s really too early to say if the Rangers are contenders or pretenders. But given the aforementioned negatives and positives, it’s safe to say that the Rangers have not improved enough from last season, at least not yet, to be considered a championship favorite. So, between contender or pretender, I would lean slightly toward pretender. The team has a record of being streaky, so the 15-3-1 start isn’t too exciting. But you never know, because as they say, there’s “No quit in New York.”
