By Michael Myllek
Recent reports have signaled that President Trump is strongly considering acknowledging Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, an area of political and religious firestorms since Israel’s founding nearly 70 years ago. This would be a historic move, as several presidents in the past have promised to our allies in the Middle East that the U.S. would recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, yet none were able to keep their word. However, it would also greatly harm American relations with the Palestinians, as a delegation headed by senior Palestinian officials has already told senior Trump advisor Jared Kushner that making this move would end all peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians; would also signal that the U.S. could not be a reliable mediator between Israel and Palestine in the future. Extremist groups have also spoken out against the move, as the terrorist organization Hamas announced that any move similar to the one President Trump is contemplating would result in violence from Hamas.
They also called on Palestinians to “incite an uprising in Jerusalem so that this conspiracy does not pass.” This decision is going to be a difficult one for President Trump, assuming he hasn’t already made up his mind, and will involve many different parties giving their opinions, and will hold ramifications for future foreign policy and relations. Should Trump do it? That’s what I will look to answer in this article.
First, we can look at how this decision would directly and immediately affect American foreign policy. When looking at this situation, making Jerusalem Israel’s capital would certainly make sense for our relations with Israel. We already have a strong relationship with Israel, one of our only allies in the area, and this would certainly further strengthen the relationship between us. On the other hand, one thing a lot of people are looking at is the timing of this announcement. If Trump does in fact include this decision in his announcement, it would come right before he unveils his administration’s Israeli-Palestinian peace plan. After hearing that this move would effectively end the peace talks, one would wonder why Trump would go through with this. Is acknowledging Jerusalem as the capital of Israel so important to Trump that he would almost certainly end all present, and realistically future, peace talks with the Palestinians? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time he’s surprised us.
Trump may also be looking at this as an opportunity to bolster his re-election campaign. Trump’s presidency has started off tumultuously to say the least, and with tax reform looking like it will pass, he may try to acknowledge the capital as Jerusalem in order to continue this short-term momentum, rather than acting for the future.
The reasoning for this is that the midterm election campaigns will be starting up soon, and that will mean that members of Congress will spend less time legislating and more time campaigning in their home districts. After that President Trump will be about to begin running for a second term, meaning he’ll have less time to push his agenda to Congress. This is significant because President Trump NEEDS a win. He failed on healthcare and “the wall” doesn’t look anywhere close to getting done. Tax reform is a start, but Trump needs a larger body of work to point to during his campaign than just tax reform, and declaring the capital of Israel to be Jerusalem gives him another success to point to when trying to show voters he has kept his campaign promises.
Another reason Trump may do this is that, he doesn’t morally agree with the Palestinians, and doesn’t really care what they think. Trump has, from the beginning, clearly supported Israel and its prerogatives over Palestine and theirs. Because of this, maybe Trump really just only cares about prosperity in Israel and not for the Palestinians. There have been numerous criticisms of Palestinian actions, including rewarding cash payouts to those who commit violence in the West Bank.
Palestinian support of certain terrorist groups has raised many eyebrows in the past, and may be enough for Trump to ignore the Palestinians’ desires and just cater to Israel’s. Many people see Trump as an ideologue who sticks to his morals over that of party desire, so imagining him doing what he believes is ethically right over what he believes is best for the global community at large isn’t past the stretch of the imagination.
Despite this, many are looking at this move by Trump as a miscalculation. Most presidents have steered away from picking a clear favorite in this affair because of the risk of losing cooperation from one of the sides and risking future negotiations. One Turkish official is quoted as saying that making Jerusalem the capital of Israel would be a ‘catastrophe’, and The New York Times published an article yesterday titled, “A Wary Response, So Far, on Trump’s Expected Recognition of Jerusalem.” Clearly, not everyone believes that this is a good idea. There are numerous articles either urging President Trump not to do this, or exploring the negative reactions around this move. These articles, together with the threats made by those in the Palestinian sphere, show that there will be push back if Trump makes this move. This push back would come back from a variety of sources for a variety of reasons.
One reason to argue that Trump should not make this decision is one I already alluded to, that it would bring a virtual end to peace negotiations between Israel and Palestine in the present as well as the foreseeable future. Peace talks between Israel and Palestine are always an integral part of any president’s foreign policy, and this decision would end these peace talks for the remainder of Trump’s own term of office, as well as those of presidents in the near future. This brings us to another reason that Trump may not want to acknowledge Jerusalem as the capital; it will largely impact future presidents’ foreign policy years and years down the road.
Trump will be taking this issue away from many future presidents, and they will have no say in it. Sure, presidents make decisions all the time that affect future presidents; however this issue is different. It is a major issue for every president, and it is a religious issue of great importance for many people.
Tax reform can be met with different tax reform, healthcare bills can be met with new healthcare, but agitating the Palestinians to the point that they refuse to even talk about a physical place on the map gives subsequent presidents no opportunity to continue these peace talks. Therefore, there is an argument that President Trump is in no position to make a decision that will have such important effects on future foreign policy.
Yet another reason some people are hesitant to support this decision is not necessarily about the decision itself, but rather the timing of it. Recently there have been many reports on the uncertainty of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s future with the administration, and making a massive foreign policy decision like the one that Trump is thinking of doing would seem an ill-advised move with the State Department in flux.
After considering all of these reasons, I would agree with Trump making this move—but not now. I think this would be a foreign policy victory for Trump, having the guts to do something that no president before him has done. However, as I mentioned above, his State Department is largely in flux right now with Secretary Tillerson’s future in jeopardy.
I also think that making this decision before unveiling a peace plan is foolish, as not even exploring the chance for peace is impulsive, in my opinion. If the two parties cannot be brought together and all peace options have been exhausted by the end of his presidency, then this option may still be on the table. Israel is our closest ally in the Middle East, and a move in support of them like this is long overdue.
Michael Myllek, FCRH ’19, is a political science and economics major from White Plains, New York.
