By Peter Valentino
The NL Central has long been dominated by the Cardinals since about the turn of the century. Since 2000, they’ve won the division nine times, making the playoffs a total of 12 times. Other teams in the division register a blip on the radar every so often, but for the most part, the Cardinals are the model for small market baseball. It seems after all these years of St. Louis dominance, however a new sheriff is in town: The Chicago Cubs. The Cubs are young, have money and are currently stacked. Although they are the frontrunners for the division, the NL Central will be one of the most competitive in baseball.
The lineup for the Cubs is projected to be Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, Jorge Soler, Miguel Montero and Addison Russell. The rotation is Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel. The idea of going to Wrigley in the summer and seeing a competitive team for years has the North Side buzzing. This team has all the tools to win the World Series, a goal that has famously evaded them for 108 years, the longest championship drought in North American sports. The Curse of the Billy Goat has a good a chance as any of ending this year. The Cubs could do something special.
The Pittsburgh Pirates might be on the downturn. They have a lot of the same pieces on the team that they’ve had since the first trip to the Wild Card game in 2012 and will be looking for its first division title since 1992, but the team stayed relatively dormant this offseason. The most significant loss was Pedro Alvarez, after the Pirates non-tendered him and replaced him with John Jaso. The absence of Neil Walker will be intriguing, as Josh Harrison is expected to replace him. The team is still good but the clock is ticking. They will eventually lose key guys after the season, like Francisco Cervelli, Michael Morse and Mark Melancon. The time to win in Pittsburgh is now, and there is a sense of urgency to win big in the City of Champions.
The St. Louis Cardinals are still the small market version of the Yankees. The team is well-run, with loyal fans and two recent championships. With all of this being said, I don’t know how much longer they have with their recent success. The team made a few key moves this offseason, like trading for Jedd Gyorko and signing Mike Leake, but they lost more than they obtained. Both Jason Heyward and John Lackey went to the rival Cubs. Steve Cishek, an important piece to the bullpen, went to Seattle. Many of their good players were replaced with average ones, and the team has already lost Lance Lynn for the season. Still, the Cardinals were one of the most injured teams in baseball in 2015 and still won 100 games. This team is like the New England Patriots of baseball. One guy gets released or hurt, and the next man comes in and does the job just as well. I think this team will finish third, but if they end up winning 100 games, even in this tough division, it would not shock me one bit.
Rounding out the bottom of the division will be the Milwaukee Brewers and the Cincinnati Reds. As far as the rebuilding process goes, the Brewers are closer to success than the Reds. The Brewers received prospects from trading both Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura during the past calendar year and the Reds did the same thing with Mike Leake and Todd Frazier. It’s hard to tell when these two teams will be successful again. The Reds have former MVP Joey Votto under contract until 2024 and Homer Bailey until 2021 but they are shopping Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce. The Brewers have the lowest payroll entering 2016 and are slowly trending upwards, but the Reds might have the worst record in baseball this year, especially considering the competition within the Central Division. They have a few good players, but not enough to get them a respectable record. This team could do worse than the 98 losses they had last year.
The NL Central could be considered a three team race, but the clear front-runner is the Cubs. These Monsters of the Midway have a strong chance to go to the World Series, and will have that chance for a long time into the future. The Cubs have the highest ceiling of any team in baseball. Good times are on their way to Wrigleyville.
