By Gregory Wagner
The number of pitchers who have to undergo Tommy John has continued to rise over time and it does not seem as though this number is going to plateau or decline anytime soon. In 2012, the number spiked to an all-time high with 36 pitchers needing Tommy John. The causes of UCL tears in pitchers’ arms are hotly debated, and I – who am by no means schooled in the practice of sports medicine – will not even try to weigh in. However, although the prospects of this surgery always seem to be broadcasted as dismal for pitchers, I would argue that for the majority of top-tier pitchers, the negative effects of the surgery on later seasons are minimal.
Over the years, some of the best pitchers have undergone Tommy John Surgery, including Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Stephen Stasburg and Tim Hudson. All four of these pitchers were considered elites on the mound before their UCL tears, and I, along with many others, would still argue for their elite status after the completion of their Tommy John surgeries.
Wainwright, who is one of the best examples of the minimal impact Tommy John surgery has on top-tier pitchers, ended his 2010 season as one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. In two back-to-back years, he ranked amongst the top of the league in ERA and in wins. “Waino” ended 2010 with a 2.42 ERA and 20 wins. In the beginning of spring training in 2011, Wainwright suffered a UCL tear, which required Tommy John surgery. After one year of inactivity due to the surgery, Wainwright “struggled” a little in comparison to his previous seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA with a record of only 14-13. These statistics, although not terrible by any means, were only mediocre compared to his 2010 season. Yet the tides quickly changed for Waino. After an average season following Tommy John surgery, Wainwright yet again had two enormous seasons in 2013 and 2014 – his strongest season yet with an ERA of 2.38 and a record of 20-9. So, for Waino, it seems as though Tommy John surgery may have had an immediate impact, yet he was quickly able to get back on the track of his previous success.
Next comes Chris Carpenter, another success story following Tommy John surgery. Before 2008, the year in which Carpenter underwent Tommy John, Carpenter had a career ERA of 4.31 and was considered a top pitcher in the Cardinals organization after making All-Star appearances in 2005 and 2006. Following surgery, Carpenter began to flourish, and this in the latter half of his career. In 2009, Carpenter put up the best numbers in his career, boasting a 2.24 ERA – the second lowest in the league – and the highest win-loss percentage in the league, .810 percent. Along with these numbers, Carpenter had the seventh highest Wins Above Replacement amongst pitchers – sitting upon a 6.5 WAR. Following the 2009 season, Carpenter played his last few seasons and remained a dominant force while doing so.
Although Stephen Strasburg has yet to pitch many seasons so far his career, with the amount of hype with which Strasburg entered the league I feel it necessary to take a look at the effects TJS has had on his young career. Shortly into Strasburg’s highly anticipated career, he tore his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. This surgery came after a strong start to his rookie season where he accumulated five quick wins and an ERA as low as 2.91. After 2010, he returned to the mound in the later part of the 2011 season with an ERA of only 1.50 in 24 innings pitched. Since then, Strasburg seems to be on par with the hype that led up to his career in the Major Leagues. Strasburg has been sitting on the lower end of 3.00 ERA and has been dominant in the strikeout per games statistic since his surgery.
The last player who I will look at is Tim Hudson, a pitcher many believe should one day enter the Hall of Fame. Tim Hudson has been a force to be reckoned with throughout his career. He has a career ERA of only 3.45 and has accumulated over 200 wins. Like Carpenter, Hudson underwent Tommy John surgery in the later part of his career. Leading up to Hudson’s surgery, he had a career ERA of 3.48. Following his surgery, Hudson continued to be a dominant force, with an ERA of 3.47 since then. Statistically, Hudson had one of his best seasons following his surgery, putting up some of the best numbers in his career, with an ERA of only 2.83 with 17 wins to go along with it.
Although these are only a few examples of pitchers who have had to undergo Tommy John surgery, for the most part I would argue that the surgery does not seem to bear any grave consequences for the majority of top-tier pitchers. So for pitchers returning this year, and in future years, from Tommy John surgery, there should be little concern regarding the negative effects that the surgery has been said to bring.
