The NBA trade deadline is full of predictions and rumors for veteran Giannis Antetokounmpo. The All-Star’s name has been a part of those rumors for a number of years. This year’s trade deadline was no different. Like in years past, rumors have swirled about where Antetokounmpo might end up by the end of the deadline. When the clock struck three on Feb. 5, nothing happened and Antetokounmpo remained a Milwaukee Buck.
No one would have guessed that the biggest news regarding Antentokoumpo would not be a trade at the deadline. Instead, Antentokoumpo announced on his X account that he will be joining the prediction market Kalshi as a shareholder.
If you have watched sports over the past few years, you have seen plenty of gambling advertisements for different sports books like Fanduel and Draftkings. Kalshi, a prediction market, offers a new twist on sports betting.
A prediction market like Kalshi allows the users to buy and sell contracts tied to the results of probable outcomes of events. These contracts can be for anything, from the results of the presidential election to how many goals are scored in an NHL game.
While you can trade on almost anything that you want on Kalshi, over 90% of their trade volume is for sports predictions.
There are many differences between the classic sports books and these prediction markets. The age requirement to place a bet on Fanduel is 21. For Kalshi, the minimum age to make a sports prediction is just 18.
In 18 states, sports betting through gambling apps is illegal. Kalshi on the other hand, is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It went through the six year process to become an exchange and because of that it is allowed to operate in all 50 states.
Online gambling is still illegal in Wisconsin, where Antetokounmpo plays. A bill is currently in the Wisconsin legislature to legalize online sports betting apps, but as of now, Kalshi is still able to operate in Wisconsin for people that might want to place money on sports. The nature of predictions on Kalshi are easy to be manipulated and are very difficult to detect as a result of this.
Antetokounmpo’s investment into Kalshi can cause problems. For example, over $23 million was traded on Kalshi about what team Antetokounmpo would play for after the trade deadline.
“A player in massive trade rumors owning part of a prediction market where people can bet on whether he gets traded is a MASSIVE conflict of interest. This is so far beyond players doing sportsbook ads,” said former ESPN writer Joon Lee on X.
Antetokounmpo is now forbidden from trading on the platform, as he’s both a shareholder and a player that has a direct impact on the results of the trades. Still, any changes in his play may cause fans to question if it has to do with his partnership with Kalshi.
This is the last thing that a league like the NBA needs at this time.
Multiple players in the NBA in the last few years have been involved in betting scandals that have made fans question the league’s integrity.
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver seemed to feel indifferent towards Antentokoumpo’s investment. “In the case of Giannis, from what I understand, it’s a minuscule investment, much smaller than 1%,” Silver said. “So that does not violate the rules that have been collectively bargained with the Players Association.”
Silver also added in the press conference, “Obviously, it’s an issue that I’m paying enormous attention to. It’s rapidly evolving. We are currently looking at prediction markets essentially in the same way that we are looking at sports betting.”
Silver’s claim that prediction markets are essentially sports betting brings to light a bigger issue with Antetokounmpo’s investment. One of the league’s biggest stars actively owning shares in a company gives him the ability to directly influence the results of the contracts that are bought.
“It concerns me in the totality of all this betting that we need a better handle, no pun intended, on all the different activity that’s happening out there,” Silver said.
Silver’s concerns are valid, but his statement does not give fans any inclination that the NBA might take steps to address this conflict of interest. Prediction markets are like the Wild West and leagues are attempting to adapt as the times keep rapidly changing.
Gambling in sports is now everywhere. It is impossible to turn on a game without seeing an advertisement for a sports book. The largest regional sports network that broadcasts NBA games is the FanDuel Sports Network.
With active indictments on several NBA players due to gambling incidents, the league, as well as players like Antentokoumpo, have to be very careful. Trust and integrity for the product on the court is built over many years, but with a few missteps, that trust can evaporate quickly.
Antetokounmpo far from the only NBA player cashing checks from companies involving sports betting. Kevin Durant and LeBron James are partnered with Fanduel and DraftKings, respectively.
Regulations need to be put in place before sports become less about entertainment and winning and more about whether someone’s parlay is going to hit. When a league’s top stars become sports betting shareholders, it only becomes harder to stop it from happening.
